@article {1473, title = {Profitable Decarbonization through E-Mobility}, journal = {Energies}, volume = {13}, year = {2020}, abstract = {

This paper focuses on the interdependent relationship of power generation, transportation and CO2 emissions to evaluate the impact of electric vehicle deployment on power generation and CO2 emissions. The value of this evaluation is in the employment of a large-scale, bottom-up, national energy modeling system that encompasses the complex relationships of producing, transforming, transmitting and supplying energy to meet the useful demand characteristics with great technological detail. One of such models employed in this analysis is the BUEMS model. The BUEMS model provides evidence of win-win policy options that lead to profitable decarbonization using Turkey{\textquoteright}s data in BUEMS. Specifically, the result shows that a ban on diesel fueled vehicles reduces lifetime emissions as well as lifetime costs. Furthermore, model results highlight the cost-effective emission reduction potential of e-buses in urban transportation. More insights from the results indicate that the marginal cost of emission reduction through e-bus transportation is much lower than that through other policy measures such as carbon taxation in transport. This paper highlights the crucial role the electricity sector plays in the sustainability of e-mobility and the value of related policy prescriptions.

}, issn = {1996-1073}, doi = {10.3390/en13164042}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/16/4042}, author = {G{\"u}rkan Kumbaro{\u g}lu and Canaz, Cansu and Deason, Jonathan and Shittu, Ekundayo} } @article {1474, title = {Impacts of Regulatory Transformation Processes to the Downstream Oil Market in Turkey}, journal = {International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy}, volume = {8}, year = {2018}, pages = {141{\textendash}149}, issn = {2146-4553}, author = {Metin, Erol and G{\"u}rkan Kumbaro{\u g}lu} } @article {1475, title = {Substitution elasticities in an energy-augmented CES production function An empirical analysis for Turkey}, journal = {Journal of Economics and Political Economy}, volume = {5}, year = {2018}, month = {Jun}, pages = {234{\textendash}249}, issn = {2148-8347}, author = {K{\"u}{\c c}{\"u}k, Merve and G{\"u}rkan Kumbaro{\u g}lu and SARICA, KEMAL} } @article {1166, title = {Karbon Vergisi ile Sera Gaz{\i} Emisyonlar{\i}n{\i}n Azalt{\i}m{\i}: Turkiye Vakas{\i}.}, journal = {International Relations/Uluslararasi Iliskiler}, volume = {14}, year = {2017}, author = {G{\"u}rkan Kumbaro{\u g}lu and {\.I}lhan Or and I{\c S}IK, Mine} } @article {1176, title = {Regional opportunities for China to go low-carbon: results from the REEC model}, journal = {The Energy Journal}, volume = {37}, year = {2016}, author = {Duan, Hongbo and Zhu, Lei and G{\"u}rkan Kumbaro{\u g}lu and Fan, Ying and others} } @article {1477, title = {Evaluation of economically optimal retrofit investment options for energy savings in buildings}, journal = {Energy and Buildings}, volume = {49}, year = {2012}, pages = {327-334}, abstract = {

In this study, a techno-economic evaluation method for the energy retrofit of buildings is introduced, geared toward finding the economically optimal set of retrofit measures. Split incentives of building owners and users are considered explicitly in a conventional (static) evaluation to identify the investment alternatives maximizing the net present value (NPV). Energy price uncertainty for various distributional assumptions of the stochastic variables is addressed through Monte Carlo simulation. Results from the simulation are used to compute probabilities and expected NPVs. Based on this, a sequential (dynamic) evaluation method is developed, featuring a real options investment appraisal. The real options approach is introduced as an advancement in the practice of economic evaluation of building retrofit investment options. The new method is applied to an office building in Germany, illustrating its performance. The case study results indicate that energy price changes significantly affect the profitability of retrofit investments, and that high price volatility creates a substantial value of waiting, making it more rational to postpone the investment.

}, keywords = {Building energy efficiency, Energy conservation, Net present value, Real options}, issn = {0378-7788}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2012.02.022}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378778812000990}, author = {G{\"u}rkan Kumbaro{\u g}lu and Reinhard Madlener} } @article {1476, title = {Modeling and analysis of a decentralized electricity market: An integrated simulation/optimization approach}, journal = {Energy}, volume = {44}, year = {2012}, pages = {830-852}, abstract = {

In this study, a model is developed to investigate the implications of an hourly day-ahead competitive power market on generator profits, electricity prices, availability and supply security. An integrated simulation/optimization approach is employed integrating a multi-agent simulation model with two alternative optimization models. The simulation model represents interactions between power generator, system operator, power user and power transmitter agents while the network flow optimization model oversees and optimizes the electricity flows, dispatches generators based on two alternative approaches used in the modeling of the underlying transmission network: a linear minimum cost network flow model and a non-linear alternating current optimal power flow model. Supply, demand, transmission, capacity and other technological constraints are thereby enforced. The transmission network, on which the scenario analyses are carried out, includes 30 bus, 41 lines, 9 generators, and 21 power users. The scenarios examined in the analysis cover various settings of transmission line capacities/fees, and hourly learning algorithms. Results provide insight into key behavioral and structural aspects of a decentralized electricity market under network constraints and reveal the importance of using an AC network instead of a simplified linear network flow approach.

}, keywords = {Alternative current optimum power flow, Electricity market modeling and design, Minimum cost network flow, Multi-agent simulation}, issn = {0360-5442}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2012.05.009}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S036054421200388X}, author = {Kemal Sar{\i}ca and G{\"u}rkan Kumbaro{\u g}lu and {\.I}lhan Or} } @article {1479, title = {A sectoral decomposition analysis of Turkish CO2 emissions over 1990{\textendash}2007}, journal = {Energy}, volume = {36}, year = {2011}, pages = {2419-2433}, abstract = {

At a time of increased international concern and negotiations for greenhouse gas emission reduction, country studies on the underlying effects of greenhouse gas emission growth gain importance. The case of Turkey is particularly interesting due to rapidly growing emissions, accompanied by a political will and actions to reduce the quick growth. The refined Laspeyres method is used in this study to identify factors\ that accelerate or reduce the increase in Turkish CO2 emissions. A year-by-year decomposition over 1990{\textendash}2007 is carried out at sectoral level based on disaggregated data that is consistent over time and consistent with international standards. Various interesting results on the underlying effects of sectoral emission growth are found. Valuable insights are gained into CO2 impacts of sectoral policies including energy and emission intensities, fuel switching and activity changes. The results yield important hints for the planning of energy and climate policy.

}, keywords = {Carbon intensity, CO decomposition, Energy intensity, Sectoral emissions, Turkey}, issn = {0360-5442}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2011.01.027}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544211000284}, author = {G{\"u}rkan Kumbaro{\u g}lu} } @article {1478, title = {What determines urban households{\textquoteright} willingness to pay for CO2 emission reductions in Turkey: A contingent valuation survey}, journal = {Energy Policy}, volume = {39}, year = {2011}, pages = {689-698}, abstract = {

This paper explores Turkish urban households{\textquoteright} willingness to pay (WTP) for CO2 emission reductions expected to result from improvements in power production. A face-to-face questionnaire, with a Contingent valuation (CV) module prepared using the double-bounded dichotomous choice elicitation framework, was administered to 2422 respondents representative of urban Turkey{\textemdash}a developing country with low but rapidly increasing greenhouse gas emissions. The determinants of WTP were identified by considering not only the impact of standard socio-economic factors but also the effects of environmental knowledge, attitudes and behaviour, the relevance of the identity of the collection agent (national versus international institutions) in terms of trust people have towards them, and the degree of perceived participation of others in the realization of the project. Our study confirms the existing literature in demonstrating that WTP figures reported by young and educated people that are active on environmental issues, and who also possess material security and environmental knowledge, are more likely to be high. However, their willingness to make contributions is hampered significantly by their belief that their fellow citizens will not contribute and the general lack of trust in institutions. Overall, this study may be taken as a call to eliminate governance-related uncertainties in climate change deals.

}, keywords = {Climate change, Contingent valuation, Turkey}, issn = {0301-4215}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.10.042}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421510007937}, author = {Fikret Adaman and Nihan Karal{\i} and G{\"u}rkan Kumbaro{\u g}lu and {\.I}lhan Or and Beg{\"u}m {\"O}zkaynak and {\"U}nal Zenginobuz} } @article {1480, title = {CO2, GDP and RET: An aggregate economic equilibrium analysis for Turkey}, journal = {Energy Policy}, volume = {36}, year = {2008}, pages = {2694-2708}, abstract = {

There is a worldwide interest in renewable electricity technologies (RETs) due to growing concerns about global warming and climate change. As an EU candidate country whose energy demand increases exponentially, Turkey inevitably shares this common interest on RET. This study, using an aggregate economic equilibrium model, explores the economic costs of different policy measures to mitigate CO2 emissions in Turkey. The model combines energy demands, capital requirements and labor inputs at a constant elasticity of substitution under an economy-wide nested production function. Growing energy demand, triggered by economic growth, is met by increased supply and initiates new capacity additions. Investment into RET is encouraged via the incorporation of (a) endogenous technological learning through which the RET cost declines as a function of cumulative capacity, and (b) a willingness to pay (WTP) function which imposes the WTP of consumers as a lower bound on RET installation. The WTP equation is obtained as a function of consumer income categories, based on data gathered from a pilot survey in which the contingent valuation methodology was employed. The impacts of various emission reduction scenarios on GDP growth and RET diffusion are explored. As expected, RET penetration is accelerated under faster technological learning and higher WTP conditions. It is found that stabilizing CO2 emissions to year 2005 levels causes economic losses amounting to 17\% and 23\% of GDP in the years 2020 and 2030, respectively.

}, keywords = {Energy and environmental policy modeling, Learning (experience) curves, Willingness to pay for CO emission reduction}, issn = {0301-4215}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.03.026}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030142150800164X}, author = {G{\"u}rkan Kumbaro{\u g}lu and Nihan Karal{\i} and Y{\i}ld{\i}z Ar{\i}kan} } @article {1481, title = {A real options evaluation model for the diffusion prospects of new renewable power generation technologies}, journal = {Energy Economics}, volume = {30}, year = {2008}, pages = {1882-1908}, abstract = {

This study presents a policy planning model that integrates learning curve information on renewable power generation technologies into a dynamic programming formulation featuring real options analysis. The model recursively evaluates a set of investment alternatives on a year-by-year basis, thereby taking into account that the flexibility to delay an irreversible investment expenditure can profoundly affect the diffusion prospects of renewable power generation technologies. Price uncertainty is introduced through stochastic processes for the average wholesale price of electricity and for input fuel prices. Demand for electricity is assumed to be increasingly price-sensitive, as the electricity market deregulation proceeds, reflecting new options of consumers to react to electricity price changes (such as time-of-use pricing, unbundled electricity services, and choice of supplier). The empirical analysis is based on data for the Turkish electricity supply industry. Apart from general implications for policy-making, it provides some interesting insights about the impact of uncertainty and technical change on the diffusion of various emerging renewable energy technologies.

}, keywords = {Dynamic programming, Investment planning, Learning curve, Real options, Renewable energy technology diffusion, Turkey}, issn = {0140-9883}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2006.10.009}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988306001241}, author = {G{\"u}rkan Kumbaro{\u g}lu and Reinhard Madlener and Mustafa Demirel} } @article {1482, title = {Modeling Technology Adoption as an Irreversible Investment under Uncertainty the Case of the Turkish Electricity Supply Industry}, journal = {Energy Economics}, volume = {27}, year = {2005}, month = {Jan}, pages = {139{\textendash}163}, author = {Madlener, Reinhard and G{\"u}rkan Kumbaro{\u g}lu and ED{\.I}GER, {\c S}EVKET VOLKAN} } @article {1484, title = {Energy and Climate Policy Analysis with the Hybrid Bottom Up Computable General Equilibrium Model SCREEN The Case of the Swiss CO2 Act}, journal = {Annals of Operations Research}, volume = {121}, year = {2003}, month = {Jul}, pages = {181{\textendash}203}, author = {G{\"u}rkan Kumbaro{\u g}lu and Madlener, Reinhard} } @article {1483, title = {Environmental Taxation and Economic Effects A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis for Turkey}, journal = {Journal of Policy Modeling}, volume = {25}, year = {2003}, month = {Nov}, pages = {795{\textendash}810}, author = {G{\"u}rkan Kumbaro{\u g}lu} } @article {1485, title = {Endogenising emission taxes: A general equilibrium type optimisation model applied for Turkey}, journal = {Energy Policy}, volume = {29}, year = {2001}, pages = {1045-1056}, abstract = {

This paper presents a modelling attempt to endogenise the level and timing of environmental taxes within an optimisation framework. First, a base model of energy{\textendash}economy{\textendash}environmental interactions is extended to allow for exogenous tax analysis. Two types of environmental taxes, one on the sulphur content of fuels and the other on the level of emissions, are exogenously included in the model as alternative instruments to mitigate pollution. Next, the base model is modified to endogenise pollution abatement. This has been achieved by incorporating a preference rate, depending on an index of emissions, into the utility function. Finally, the emission index and emission tax are taken as substitutes and modelled within a CES form to endogenise the emission tax. Results for all cases, obtained with Turkish data, are discussed. It is found that a tax on SO2 emissions is more effective in reducing SO2 emissions than a tax applied on the sulphur content of fuels. It is also found that a gradually increasing tax is more effective in reducing emissions than a constant tax.

}, keywords = {Emission taxation, Endogenous pollution abatement, Energy{\textendash}economy modelling}, issn = {0301-4215}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/S0301-4215(01)00032-5}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421501000325}, author = {Y{\i}ld{\i}z Ar{\i}kan and G{\"u}rkan Kumbaro{\u g}lu} } @article {1486, title = {A model for long-term air quality prediciton and development of efficient control strategies in Turkey}, journal = {EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH}, volume = {102}, year = {1997}, month = {Oct}, pages = {380{\textendash}392}, issn = {0377-2217}, author = {G{\"u}rkan Kumbaro{\u g}lu} }